Publication The road not taken: Equinor’s alternative to international oil and gas growth

How shareholder dividends could have delivered Norway US$36 billion (400 billion NOK) and avoided 6.3 GtCO2e of emissions.

3rd February 2025

Executive Summary

This report provides analysis which suggests Equinor’s ongoing pursuit of oil and gas production outside the Norwegian Continental Shelf has made Norwegians poorer, not richer.

From its initial public offering (IPO) in 2001 until 2023, Equinor spent $103 billion^[1] expanding its oil and gas portfolio outside of Norway, increasing international production tenfold over this period. The international segment remains central to Equinor’s strategy today, with ~$3 billion p.a. international capex forecast over 2024-2030.

International operations have, however, delivered only modest value accretion for Equinor – generating just $2 billion in nominal terms, according to our modelling. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the international portfolio have been extensive - more than five times Norway’s total domestic emissions, with current assets forecast to emit twice as much again by the end of the century. With Equinor under pressure from shareholders to move closer towards Paris alignment and protect long-term value, scrutiny on the beleaguered international portfolio is set to increase.

We have modelled a counterfactual, where instead of using cash flow to pursue international oil and gas growth over the past two decades, Equinor paid higher shareholder dividends – including to the Norwegian state, which under law would have invested this money in the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). The findings are stark: Norwegians would have been $36 billion (400 billion NOK) better off had this road been taken.

Previous ACCR research shows that halting the development of fossil fuel projects outside of Norway, and stopping all exploration for new oil and gas reserves, can move Equinor closer towards Paris alignment without materially diluting shareholder value.

Key points

Despite Equinor spending $103 billion expanding its oil and gas portfolio outside of Norway between 2001 to 2023, the international portfolio has only generated $2 billion in nominal terms.
Equinor’s international oil and gas projects have emitted 5 times Norway’s domestic emissions and are forecast to emit twice as much again by the end of the century.
If, instead of pursuing international oil and gas growth, Equinor had paid out higher dividends to shareholders:
- investments in the GPFG1 equities would have generated $54 billion more value than Equinor's international oil and gas assets
- which means the Norwegian state would have been $36 billion (400 billion NOK) better off.
The company says it has been ‘improving’ and ‘optimising’ its international investments since 2013. However, our modelling shows its international investments since this time have lost money – more than $1 billion in nominal terms.

Download a PDF of The road not taken: Equinor’s alternative to international oil and gas growth | 03/02/25

Please read the terms and conditions attached to the use of this site.